Actuaries are good in applying actuarial and statistical models in evaluating future financial events. But are they good in predicting the FIFA World Cup winners?
To put their skills to test, in a competition named "Soccactuary" run by the actuarial recruitment firm TAS Search, actuaries and future actuaries were asked to predict the Winner, Runner-Up, Third Place and Fourth Place before the kickoff of the quarter-finals.
"Based on the submissions we received, we tabulated and evaluated the predictions by this group of actuaries. In aggregate, the group of actuaries predicted that the 2014 FIFA World Cup will be won by Netherlands", said Teh Loo Hai, the managing actuary of TAS Search.
Brazil is predicted to be the Runner-Up, with Argentina and Germany in Third and Fourth Place respectively.
Are the actuaries right? Only time will tell. However, as at the point of writing this article after the first 2 quarter-final matches, the actuaries have correctly predicted the winners of both matches: Brazil and Germany!